John McCain remains ahead of Barack Obama by one point in the Gallup Daily Tracking Poll out today. McCain leads 46%-45%, the third straight day he has held that margin.

Interestingly, Gallup says that last night's tracking - the first full night since Obama clinched the nomination and got almost universally fawning coverage of his pep rally speech - showed no bounce for Obama. It had the two tied at 45%-45%. It will be interesting to see if he gets much of a bounce in the days ahead. I suspect Obama will move out to a lead before the Democratic Convention, and may even be ahead by ten points or so by the end of the convention. But don't despair - "President" Dukakis led George H.W. Bush by 17 points after the Democratic Convention in 1988 and still lost in a landslide. If McCain stays close through the summer, it will be a very bad sign for Obama. I heard one pollster recently say he believes the election will either break early for Obama or late for McCain. The longer they stay close, the better that is for McCain.

The five-day rolling average has McCain at 46% and Obama at 45%, exactly the same now for three nights running. From a more microscopic perspective, Wednesday night's interviewing -- the first conducted entirely after it became official on Tuesday that Obama had enough delegates to become the Democratic nominee -- also was little changed from Tuesday night's interviewing, with the two candidates tied at 45% each. This suggests no immediate bounce for Obama from the widespread news coverage of his becoming the presumptive Democratic nominee.