Survey USA Polls
Here is a local news report on a Survey USA poll released September 9, 2008, showing John McCain surging to a 20-point lead over Barack Obama, 58%-38%. Just one month ago, Survey USA showed McCain leading by only four-points, 49%-45%.
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John McCain has moved out to a six-point lead over Barack Obama in Indiana, according to a new Survey USA poll. McCain now leads Obama 50%-44% in the Hoosier State, reversing a one-point Obama lead in Indiana in a Survey USA poll there two months ago.
In an election for President of the United States held today in Indiana, Republican John McCain defeats Democrat Barack Obama by 6 points, 50% to 44%, according to this latest SurveyUSA tracking poll conducted exclusively for WCPO-TV Cincinnati and WHAS-TV Louisville. Compared to an identical poll released eight weeks ago, Obama is down 3 points; McCain is up 3.
Among those who regularly attend religious services, McCain leads by 28 points, up from 16 points eight weeks ago. Among those who occasionally attend, Obama leads by 14. Among those who rarely attend, Obama leads by 23. The field period for this survey overlapped with the candidates' participation in Pastor Rick Warren's Saddleback Civil Forum on the Presidency, held in California 08/16/08. Among men, McCain leads by 12 points; among women, McCain and Obama tie. Eight weeks ago, Obama had led by 7 among women.
Among voters younger than Barack Obama, the two candidates tie. Among voters older than John McCain, McCain leads by 21 points; among voters who are in-between the two candidates' ages, McCain leads by 9. 12% of Republicans cross over to vote for Democrat Obama; 19% of Democrats cross over to vote for Republican McCain. Independents favor Obama by 12 points.
Among those who have graduated from a 4-year college, McCain leads by 15 points; among those who have not, McCain and Obama tie. Among those with household incomes of less than $50,000, Obama leads by 11; among those with incomes above $50,000, McCain leads by 18.
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Several new polls have great news for Sen. John McCain! McCain now leads Barack Obama in Colorado, Virginia, Nevada, and Florida and North Carolina - although by small margins - according to new polls released today and yesterday. Here are the numbers:
49% John McCain
48% Barack Obama
Just one month ago, Obama led McCain by seven points at 49%-42%.
48% John McCain
47% Barack Obama
48% John McCain
45% Barack Obama
Just one month ago, Obama led McCain by two points at 42%-40%.
In Florida - Insider Advantage / Poll Position
48% John McCain
44% Barack Obama
In North Carolina - Survey USA
49% John McCain
45% Barack Obama
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Perhaps just as heartening for McCain, he is moving much closer to Obama in a number of states assumed to be fairly safe for Democrats. Rather than Obama pulling away from McCain leading up to the Conventions, McCain is now within striking distance in these states:
49% Barack Obama
45% John McCain
Just three weeks ago, Obama led McCain by 12 points in Minnesota, 49%-37%!
51% Barack Obama
44% John McCain
Just one month ago, Obama led McCain by 16 points at 55%-39%.
In Wisconsin - Strategic Vision
47% Barack Obama
42% John McCain
In Pennsylvania - Franklin & Marshall
46% Barack Obama
41% John McCain
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These numbers bode well for McCain who has weathered the nearly three month storm since Obama clinched the nomination against Hillary the first week of June. Most pundits believed he would open up a huge lead over McCain during the three months leading up to the conventions. So far, he has not. McCain has had far less media coverage, and despite the fawning press in favor of Obama and his huge overseas trip, McCain has managed to stay close. In fact, as these numbers indicate, he is moving up on Obama as the Democratic Convention draws near.
Obama will assuredly get a bounce out of his convention - nominees almost always get a bounce, averaging in the 12 point region.
UPDATE: The Gallup Poll Average Convention Bounce is apparently 6.1 points since 1964:
According to Gallup's analysis of its own polls since 1964, the average post-convention bounce is 6.1 percent. To calculate that figure, Gallup used the last poll before the convention and the first poll afterward. The largest bounce came in 1992, when Bill Clinton went up 16 points in the polls following the convention. The smallest came in 1972 when Sen. George McGovern's poll numbers did not rise at all after the Democratic convention officially nominated him.
But if McCain can be within single digits of Obama nationally after the Democratic Convention and before the GOP Convention, he will be in amazing position headed into the two month sprint to November 4. Keep your eye on the trend.
Sen. John McCain has now moved out to a six-point lead over Barack Obama in Florida according to a new Survey USA poll:
In an election in critical swing-state Florida for President of the United States today, 08/04/2008, Republican John McCain defeats Democrat Barack Obama, 50% to 44%, according to this latest SurveyUSA poll pre-election poll conducted exclusively for WFLA-TV Tampa and WKRG-TV Pensacola. Obama leads by 9 points in Southeastern Florida, where he takes 52% of the vote; McCain takes 52% of the vote in Central Florida, 53% in Southwestern Florida, 55% in the northeastern Florida, and 59% in Northwestern Florida. Among voters younger than Barack Obama, who turns 47 years old today, Obama leads by 5 points. Among voters older than John McCain, who turns 72 at the end of the month, McCain leads by 13. Among voters in-between their ages, McCain leads by 14. Among white voters, McCain leads by 19 points. Among black voters, Obama leads by 68. Hispanics favor Obama by 60 points. McCain leads among both men and women, among both college grads and non-college grads, among both those who earn less than $50,000 a year and among those who earn more than $50,000 a year.
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A new Survey USA poll in Michigan gives strong support to John McCain adding Mitt Romney to the ticket if his major aim is to win Michigan.
McCain leads Obama 41%-37% head-to-head. But when Romney is added to the ticket, McCain-Romney defeat every possible Democratic ticket surveyed:
Michigan is a "must-win" state for Democrats. If McCain could pick it off, he would be well on his way to victory.
Survey USA recently did a series of polls in key battleground states to determine who might be the strongest Vice-Presidential running mates for both John McCain and Barack Obama. The results might surprise you.
The polls found that former Arkansas Governor Mike Huckabee would generally be the strongest pick for McCain, and by far John Edwards would be strongest for Obama. Take a look at these numbers. They certainly make you stop and think:
In Ohio
In California
In New Mexico read more »
McCain Will Make Dems Defend Traditionally Blue Turf
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Going forward, John McCain has only to finish up the job of crossing the finish line for the GOP Nomination by gaining the 1,191 delegates needed. By all accounts, he now has over 800. Here are new polls for Wisconsin, Ohio, and North Carolina:
Wisconsin (Strategic Vision)
45% John McCain
27% Mike Huckabee
7% Ron Paul
Ohio (Survey USA)
50% John McCain
36% Mike Huckabee
6% Ron Paul
North Carolina (Survey USA)
45% John McCain
40% Mike Huckabee
5% Ron Paul
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