Rasmussen Polls
There's a lot riding on tonight's debate between John McCain and Barack Obama - especially for Sen. McCain. Three tracking polls out today show significant movement in Obama's direction. Rasmussen has Obama gaining three overnight and now holding a five-point lead over McCain - 50%-45%. Gallup has Obama gaining three overnight as well, and now leading by three at 48%-45%. Hotline is even worse for McCain, with Obama now leading by seven-points at 49%-42%.
McCain must do well tonight to stop some of the movement in Obama's direction. It will be difficult, because, quite frankly, the endless drumbeat of pro-Obama bias in virtually all of the mainstream print and television media is taking it's toll on McCain. Obama is entirely propped up by the media, and undoubtedly the questions will be skewed in Obama's favor at the debate.
John McCain will do his best, but he is playing against a stacked deck. It's tragic what has happened to the free press in America. It may be free, but there is now no semblance of fairness.
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Colorado: McCain 48, Obama 46
Virginia: McCain 48, Obama 48
Pennsylvania: McCain 47, Obama 47
Ohio: McCain 48, Obama 45
Florida: McCain 49, Obama 44
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John McCain is leading Barack Obama by 31-points in Oklahoma, 63%-32%. It's no surprise that McCain is leading. But it is shocking that McCain is supported by 41% of Democrats in Oklahoma, according to a new Rasmussen poll there!
John McCain is holding a two-to-one lead over Barack Obama in the Republican stronghold state of Oklahoma, according to the first Rasmussen Reports telephone survey of voters there this election year.
McCain has 63% of the vote versus Obama’s 32% (see crosstabs).
Not only does the GOP presidential nominee have the backing of 95% of Republicans, but 41% of Oklahoma Democrats support him, too. Fifty-five percent (55%) of Democrats favor Obama. Unaffiliated voters are nearly evenly divided over the two candidates.
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John McCain has moved out to a 3-point lead over Barack Obama in the latest Rasmussen Daily Tracking Poll. That is a 3-point jump for McCain in a single day:
The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Friday shows John McCain up by three points, his largest lead since Obama wrapped up the Democratic Presidential Nomination. For most of the past several months, Obama has held a modest lead with McCain slipping ahead by a single point on just three of the past hundred days.
McCain now attracts 48% of the vote while Obama earns 45%. When "leaners" are included, it’s McCain 49%, Obama 46%. Yesterday, the candidates were tied.
It is unusual to find a three-point jump in one day on the tracking poll. Daily tracking results are collected via nightly telephone surveys and reported on a three-day rolling average basis. Today’s gain for McCain comes partly from a good night of polling last night and partly from the fact that a good night for Obama on Monday is no longer part of the sample.
McCain leads by fourteen points among men while Obama holds an eight point advantage among women. Obama has the edge among voters under 40 while McCain leads among older voters.
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A shocking new Rasmussen poll out of Washington shows Sen. John McCain pulling within two-points of Barack Obama. Obama leads 49%-47%, a stunning reversal from one month ago when Obama led 52%-40%. Washington has been considered a "sure thing" state for Obama, but with the addition of Gov. Sarah Palin, it appears to now be competitive:
Washington is the latest state to show a strong western surge for John McCain since he added Alaska Governor Sarah Palin to the Republican ticket.
The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey in Washington finds Barack Obama still ahead, but barely. It’s Obama 49%, McCain 47%. A month ago, Obama was up by twelve percentage points. Recent polls have shown McCain gains in Montana, New Mexico and North Dakota.
Among Democrats, Obama now attracts 83% of the vote, down six points from last month. However, the big change comes among unaffiliated voters who now favor McCain by a 48% to 43% margin. In August, before the two parties held their conventions, Obama led by twelve among voters not affiliated with either major political party
John McCain and Sarah Palin now lead Barack Obama - Joe Biden by seven points in the critical battleground state of Ohio. A new Rasmussen/Fox News Poll shows McCain leading 51%-44%:
The latest Fox News/Rasmussen Reports telephone survey in Ohio, finds John McCain out in front of Barack Obama 51% to 44%.
The latest numbers, which are the first to be released since the conclusion of both parties’ conventions, mark an improvement for the Republican nominee. In August, McCain had a slightly more modest advantage over the Democrat. In fact, the GOP hopeful has held a modest lead since July in the swing state that finally decided the 2004 election.
McCain is viewed favorably by 63% of Ohio voters and unfavorably by 35%. Obama’s ratings are 50% favorable, 48% unfavorable.
Take note of the disparity between the two candidates in the favorable ratings. McCain viewed favorable by a +28% margin; Obama viewed favorable by a 2% margin. After this many months on the campaign trail, it will be hard for Obama to lift his favorable rating significantly over the next 56 days.
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The latest Rasmussen Daily Tracking Poll has John McCain and Sarah Palin tied with the Obama - Biden ticket at 48%-48%! Obama's convention bounce has disappeared, and McCain-Palin is surging following the GOP Convention:
The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Sunday, September 7, shows the race for the White House is tied.
In the first national polling results based entirely on interviews conducted after Sarah Palin’s acceptance speech, Barack Obama gets 46% of the vote and so does John McCain. When "leaners" are included, it’s all even at 48%.
This past Tuesday, Obama’s bounce peaked with the Democrat enjoying a six-percentage point advantage. Before the two conventions were held, Obama had consistently held a one or two point lead over McCain for most of August (see recent daily results).
Tracking Poll results are based upon nightly telephone interviews and reported on a three-day rolling average basis. As a result, tomorrow (Monday) will be the first update based entirely upon interviews conducted after McCain’s speech. By Tuesday or Wednesday, the net impact of both political conventions should be fairly clear.
McCain earns the vote from 89% of Republicans while Obama is supported by 81% of Democrats. McCain also manages to attract 15% of Democrats while Obama gets 9% of the Republican vote. Voters not affiliated with either major party remain fairly evenly divided between the two men.
McCain leads by seven points among men while Obama leads by six among women. On Tuesday, when Obama’s lead peaked, he had a fourteen point advantage among women.
John McCain and Sarah Palin have pulled within two points of Obama-Biden in the latest Rasmussen Daily Tracking Poll. Obama leads 48%-46%, a three-point improvement for the GOP ticket following Sarah Palin's outstanding speech on Wednesday night.
Gov. Sarah Palin - John McCain's choice as Vice-Presidential running mate - made a very positive impression in her debut yesterday, according to a Rasmussen Reports survey. Following her speech in Dayton, Ohio, Americans have a favorable opinon of Palin by a 53%-26% margin. Following Joe Biden's debut as Obama's pick, 43% had a favorable impression of him:
Sarah Palin has made a good first impression. Before being named as John McCain’s running mate, 67% of voters didn’t know enough about the Alaska governor to have an opinion. After her debut in Dayton and a rush of media coverage, a new Rasmussen Reports telephone survey finds that 53% now have a favorable opinion of Palin while just 26% offer a less flattering assessment.
Palin earns positive reviews from 78% of Republicans, 26% of Democrats and 63% of unaffiliated voters. Obviously, these numbers will be subject to change as voters learn more about her in the coming weeks. Among all voters, 29% have a Very Favorable opinion of Palin while 9% hold a Very Unfavorable view.
By way of comparison, on the day he was selected as Barack Obama’s running mate, Delaware Senator Joseph Biden was viewed favorably by 43% of voters.
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John McCain has taken a one-point lead over Barack Obama in the latest Rasmussen Daily Tracking Poll! This poll includes polling reaction to the first day of the Democratic National Convention. It will take several days to see if Obama is going to get a bounce out of the convention. The average bounce is about six points candidates get out of their convention:
The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Wednesday shows Barack Obama and John McCain each attracting 44% of the vote for the second straight day. When "leaners" are included, though, McCain picked up another point since yesterday and now has a statistically insignificant one-point advantage over Obama, 47% to 46%.
This is the first time since August 9 that McCain has held any advantage over Obama. The candidates have been within two points of each other on every day but two for the past month.
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