Presidential Polls
I took a look at the latest IBD/TIPP poll that Brian just posted showing McCain trailing by only 2 points. As many know, that poll was the most accurate poll regarding the 2004 Presidential race.
The poll shows that there are 8.7% of voters who are listed as "undecided." When I saw those numbers, my eyes lit up. In the past few days I've read about how undecideds were believed likely to favor McCain over Obama. Dick Morris had a great piece out earlier this week titled "Undecideds Should Break for McCain" where he made the case that Obama has now assumed the role of the "incumbent" in this race.
At the beginning of this contest, Obama effectively made the case that the election was a referendum on Bush's performance in office. Painting a vote for McCain as a desire for "four more years of the same failed policies," he made the most of Bush's dismal approval rating. Had he been able to keep the focus on Bush, he would likely have inherited most of the undecided vote.
But as Obama surged into a more or less permanent lead in October, animated by the financial crisis, he has assumed many of the characteristics of an incumbent. Every voter asks himself one question before he or she casts a ballot: Do I want to vote for Obama? His uniqueness, charisma and assertive program have so dominated the dialogue that the election is now a referendum on Obama.
As Obama has oscillated, moving somewhat above or somewhat below 50 percent in all the October polls, his election likely hangs in the balance. If he falls short of 50 percent in these circumstances, a majority of the voters can be said to have rejected him. Likely a disproportionate number of the undecideds will vote for McCain.
If that is the case, McCain has a real chance here to win. If you believe the IBD/TIPP numbers, than Senator McCain would likely need to get more than 62% of the undecided vote to beat Obama. Almost 2 out of every 3.
Is that possible?
In my opinion...You Betcha! ;)
My gut tells me they are, but I don't know if they are off this bad.
Hat Tip. Ace of Spades
If on Tuesday night you hear them call the state of NJ for McCain, the proceeding loud thump you hear will be me passing out and hitting the floor.
My home state is full of Dems and our newspapers all tilt far to the left. But I was surprised this morning (not by the extreme liberal bias) but by the main editorial in the Newark Star Ledger. It implored that folks not stay home because of larger anticipated poll crowds. NJ has over 600,000 new voters this time around, which will make things a bit crazy along with some long lines.
Makes you wonder if somethings got them worried?
For those who think the race is already over, don't bet on it!
The presidential race tightened after the final debate, with John McCain gaining among whites and people earning less than $50,000, according to an Associated Press-GfK poll that shows McCain and Barack Obama essentially running even among likely voters in the election homestretch.
The poll, which found Obama at 44 percent and McCain at 43 percent, supports what some Republicans and Democrats privately have said in recent days: that the race narrowed after the third debate as GOP-leaning voters drifted home to their party and McCain's "Joe the plumber" analogy struck a chord.
Three weeks ago, an AP-GfK survey found that Obama had surged to a seven-point lead over McCain, lifted by voters who thought the Democrat was better suited to lead the nation through its sudden economic crisis.
The contest is still volatile, and the split among voters is apparent less than two weeks before Election Day.
"I trust McCain more, and I do feel that he has more experience in government than Obama. I don't think Obama has been around long enough," said Angela Decker, 44, of La Porte, Ind.
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Sen. John McCain has now moved out to a six-point lead over Barack Obama in Florida according to a new Survey USA poll:
In an election in critical swing-state Florida for President of the United States today, 08/04/2008, Republican John McCain defeats Democrat Barack Obama, 50% to 44%, according to this latest SurveyUSA poll pre-election poll conducted exclusively for WFLA-TV Tampa and WKRG-TV Pensacola. Obama leads by 9 points in Southeastern Florida, where he takes 52% of the vote; McCain takes 52% of the vote in Central Florida, 53% in Southwestern Florida, 55% in the northeastern Florida, and 59% in Northwestern Florida. Among voters younger than Barack Obama, who turns 47 years old today, Obama leads by 5 points. Among voters older than John McCain, who turns 72 at the end of the month, McCain leads by 13. Among voters in-between their ages, McCain leads by 14. Among white voters, McCain leads by 19 points. Among black voters, Obama leads by 68. Hispanics favor Obama by 60 points. McCain leads among both men and women, among both college grads and non-college grads, among both those who earn less than $50,000 a year and among those who earn more than $50,000 a year.
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Republican John McCain leads Barack Obama in two presidential swing states, as some of Hillary Clinton's core supporters shun the Democratic front-runner, polls showed Thursday.
The Quinnipiac University surveys had McCain up 45 to 41 percent on the Illinois senator in Florida, the epicenter of the 2000 recount drama, which also helped President George W. Bush back to the White House in 2004.
In Ohio, another vital battleground that narrowly went for Bush last time around, McCain leads Obama 44 percent to 40 percent.
Obama however leads McCain in Pennsylvania, by 46 to 40 percent. The state is a must-win for Democrats eyeing the White House.
The poll also appeared to bolster Clinton's arguments that she and not Obama is the best bet for Democrats to take on McCain in states likely to shape the outcome in November's general election.
She led Arizona Senator McCain in all three states, in which she also won in primary votes against Obama. The former first lady led 48 to 41 percent in both Florida and Ohio and by 50-37 percent in Pennsylvania.
The poll showed that between 26 and 36 percent of Clinton supporters in primaries in the three states would switch to McCain if Obama, vying to become the first black US president, becomes the Democratic nominee.
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New Rasmussen polling in Missouri offers great hope to Republicans that John McCain can defeat either Hillary Clinton or Barack Obama in a head-to-head race for President. Here are the numbers:
43% John McCain
42% Hillary Clinton
42% John McCain
40% Barack Obama
It must be remembered that Missouri virtually always votes for the winning candidate. It has been over 50 years (1956) since Missouri voted for the loser. The fact McCain is doing well in Missouri versus Obama is significant considering the non-stop positive coverage Obama has gotten. That bodes well for McCain. Republicans have a real shot at winning in November, despite what the Democrats are saying.
Missouri is a classic swing state in Presidential Elections that almost always awards its Electoral College Votes to the candidate who wins the White House. George W. Bush won those 11 Electoral Votes four years ago by winning the popular vote 53% to 46%.
Looking ahead to this November, the Show-Me State could play a pivotal role once again. The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey finds John McCain locked in an extraordinarily close race with either Barack Obama or Hillary Clinton. It’s McCain 43%, Clinton 42% and McCain 42%, Obama 40%. In both cases, McCain’s lead is statistically insignificant. The fact that nearly one-in-five Missouri voters remains uncommitted or is seeking some other candidate means that there is likely to be a lot of campaigning here this fall.
While in Missouri it makes little difference which Democrat is nominated, recent polling in both Colorado and New Hampshire show Obama outperforming Clinton in those states. National polling, updated daily, also shows Obama currently performing better than Clinton in match-ups with McCain.
In Missouri, both Democrats lead by nearly ten points among women and trail by double digits among men.
Thirty-eight percent (38%) say the economy is the top voting issue of Election 2008. Among these voters, both Democrats lead McCain by more than twenty percentage points.
Seventeen percent (17%) say the War in Iraq is the top issue and both Democrats have a narrowed edge over McCain among these voters.
Ten percent (10%) name immigration as a top issue and 10% say national security. For voters focused on these topics, McCain holds overwhelming leads in the fifty-to-sixty percentage point range over both Democrats.
Ten percent (10%) name health care as a top issue. Among these voters, Clinton has a substantial edge over McCain and Obama a more modest advantage.
McCain is viewed favorably by 54% of the state’s voters, Obama by 50%, and Clinton by 47%.
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