Rasmussen Reports is out with a New Jersey Poll today showing John McCain leading Obama there in a general election matchup! McCain leads Obama 45% - 43% in New Jersey, a state the Democrats automatically put in their column when assessing their electoral map chances.

However, if Barack Obama is the Democratic nominee, the race in New Jersey will begin as a toss-up. The Rasmussen Reports election poll finds McCain with 45% support and Obama with 43%. McCain leads by twelve among men while Obama has a five point edge among women. This is one of the few states where Clinton outperforms Obama in general election match-ups against McCain (Florida is another).

McCain does well in New Jersey by attracting solid support from GOP voters and also picking up the votes from 25% of Democrats. This could be an example of what Michael Barone had in mind when he said we will have to throw away the old Red-State, Blue-State electoral maps for Election 2008. Four years ago, John Kerry won New Jersey by seven percentage points. In Election 2000, Al Gore carried the state handily and defeated George W. Bush 56% to 40%.