Gallup Polls
John McCain has moved out to a two-point lead over Barack Obama in the latest Gallup Daily Tracking Poll! This is the first time since early June that McCain has led in the poll. As Gallup explains, this poll shows that Obama has officially received "no bounce" from his selection of Joe Biden as his running mate:
It's official: Barack Obama has received no bounce in voter support out of his selection of Sen. Joe Biden to be his vice presidential running mate.
Gallup Poll Daily tracking from Aug. 23-25, the first three-day period falling entirely after Obama's Saturday morning vice presidential announcement, shows 46% of national registered voters backing John McCain and 44% supporting Obama, not appreciably different from the previous week's standing for both candidates. This is the first time since Obama clinched the nomination in early June, though, that McCain has held any kind of advantage over Obama in Gallup Poll Daily tracking.
The race for president has been virtually tied since mid-August. In this period, Obama's support from national registered voters has consistently ranged from 44% to 46%. The 46% currently supporting McCain is technically his best showing since late May/early June, but is not a statistically significant improvement over his recent range from 43% to 45%.
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John McCain is tied with Barack Obama at 45%-45% in the latest Gallup Daily Tracking Poll. Obama has led all summer, but as the Democratic Convention gets set to begin, the race is now even:
The latest Gallup Poll Daily tracking update finds a precise tie between John McCain and Barack Obama, with 45% of nationwide registered voters currently supporting each candidate for president.
The two have been closely matched in Gallup Poll Daily tracking for the last 11 days, with neither candidate enjoying a statistically significant lead (though Obama has typically held a slim advantage). Thus, the candidates enter this intense, back-to-back convention period even, after Obama enjoyed a slight advantage throughout the summer. The National Democratic Convention begins Monday in Denver with the Republicans' convention begins Sept. 1 in Minneapolis.
Typically, presidential candidates have gotten a bump in the polls after naming their vice presidential running mate. Obama apparently received no immediate benefit in the polls from naming Biden as Gallup Poll Daily tracking interviews conducted during the day on Saturday still showed Obama and McCain closely matched in voter preferences for president.
The first Gallup three-day rolling average in which all interviews will have been conducted entirely after the announcement of Obama's vice presidential selection will be reported by Gallup on Tuesday, and will give a clearer assessment of its impact on voter preferences in the presidential race.
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From Gallup.com
The Democrats must be shocked that McCain is tied with Obama this close the Democratic Convention. With Hillary being able to secure a tally of votes at the convention, Obama may wish he had not gone on vacation.
John McCain and Barack Obama remain tied at 44%-44% for the second straight day in the Gallup Daily Tracking Poll:
Republican John McCain and Democrat Barack Obama are once again tied in the latest Gallup Poll Daily tracking presidential trial heat.The results, based on a three-day rolling average of interviews conducted July 30-Aug. 1, show Obama and McCain each receiving 44% of the vote among registered voters. The candidates were also tied in Friday's update. Obama received a brief increase in support near the conclusion of his overseas trip last week, gaining a nine percentage point advantage in July 24-26 polling. But that bounce disappeared almost quickly as it emerged.
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Sen. John McCain has surged back to within one point of Barack Obama in a new daily tracking poll released by Gallup. Obama leads McCain 45%-44%, a dramatic change from five days ago when Obama led McCain 49%-40% following Obama's overseas trip.
Today's results are based on Gallup Poll Daily tracking from July 28-30.
The latest three-day average confirms that Obama was unable to solidify the significant lead he briefly enjoyed among registered voters at the height of publicity surrounding his weeklong visit to Afghanistan, Iraq, the Middle East, and Europe. Gallup tracking showed Obama's lead rising at one point as high as nine percentage points (for the average from last Thursday, Friday, and Saturday), but the presumptive Democratic nominee has been losing ground since that point.
John McCain and Barack Obama are tied according to the most recent Gallup Poll
Voter preferences had been fairly evenly divided for the past week, with Obama generally holding a slight advantage of two or three percentage points. This is the first time since Gallup's May 31-June 4 rolling average that Obama does not have at least a slim advantage over McCain. Obama's largest lead to date has been seven points.
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I like the trend line. McCain UP Obama Down.
HT:Hotair
The race between John McCain and Barack Obama is returning to a virtual tie. After Hillary Clinton dropped out eight days ago, Obama moved out to as much as a 7-point lead in the Gallup Daily Tracking Poll. But as of today, the margin has been cut back to just two points at 44%-42%, as you see in the graphic below:
We'll see if this trend continues in the week ahead. Democrats generally poll stronger on weekends, so it will probably widen again tomorrow based on Sunday polling, but may narrow again as the week presses on and the weekend polling rolls off. At any rate, the Obama "bounce" appears to waning.
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John McCain remains ahead of Barack Obama by one point in the Gallup Daily Tracking Poll out today. McCain leads 46%-45%, the third straight day he has held that margin.
Interestingly, Gallup says that last night's tracking - the first full night since Obama clinched the nomination and got almost universally fawning coverage of his pep rally speech - showed no bounce for Obama. It had the two tied at 45%-45%. It will be interesting to see if he gets much of a bounce in the days ahead. I suspect Obama will move out to a lead before the Democratic Convention, and may even be ahead by ten points or so by the end of the convention. But don't despair - "President" Dukakis led George H.W. Bush by 17 points after the Democratic Convention in 1988 and still lost in a landslide. If McCain stays close through the summer, it will be a very bad sign for Obama. I heard one pollster recently say he believes the election will either break early for Obama or late for McCain. The longer they stay close, the better that is for McCain.
The five-day rolling average has McCain at 46% and Obama at 45%, exactly the same now for three nights running. From a more microscopic perspective, Wednesday night's interviewing -- the first conducted entirely after it became official on Tuesday that Obama had enough delegates to become the Democratic nominee -- also was little changed from Tuesday night's interviewing, with the two candidates tied at 45% each. This suggests no immediate bounce for Obama from the widespread news coverage of his becoming the presumptive Democratic nominee.
John McCain is ahead of both Hillary Clinton in the latest Gallup Tracking Poll. McCain trailed both Dem candidates earlier in the month, but has now taken slight leads over Clinton and Obama:
47% John McCain
44% Barack Obama
47% John McCain
45% Hillary Clinton
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