election_2008
So Big Mac has done it -- picked a favorite of the religious folks to be his running mate. Picked an obscurity from a state far, far away. But he HAS done it. So, what does this selection mean ?
Four things, chiefly:
1.Big Mac recognizes that Hillary Clinton's women are the great mass of voters who do not have a favorite in the race and thus remain up for grabs, and that he needs many of them to vote for him if he's to win.
2.The era of Cheney-style co-presidency is over. John McCain will govern ON HIS OWN. He will be the boss. The SOLE boss. Sarah Palin will be almost a non-entity in his administration, other than as outreach to women and, perhaps, an advisor on oil issues. Big Mac will turn to his "posse" -- Joe Lieberman, Tom Coburn, Lindsey Graham, Tim Pawlenty, Charlie Crist, Rudy Giuliani, Tom Ridge -- for advice on governing.
3.Big Mac has felt the pressure from the religious folks and has given in to it -- unlike BHO, who did NOT give in to Hillary Clinton. Big Mac has shown weakness here. Even though Sarah Palin's very obscurity assures that she is just a symbol -- and it is instructive, about the religious folks own inconsequence, that they are thrilled, even overjoyed (so it is reported) by a VP pick who is ONLY a symbol, who has basically no folowers of her own -- it is discouraging that Big Mac, of all people, felt the need to give such an important gift to those in the Republican party who most despise him.
My own view is that you give the enemy NOTHING. But perhaps that is what Big Mac feels that he has given his right-wing enemies: nothing, or almost nothing.
Except that by so doing, he has thrown away his strongest argument for why Big Mac should be elected and not BHO: that BHO is Not Ready To Be President. We now have an inexperienced near non-entity a heartbeat away from the Presidency of a man who is 72 years old. The inexprienc of BHO was a WINNING argument, whereas Sarah Palin, at her most favorable for the campaign, is a newbie -- a hope and a gamble.
Still, Karl Rove is not happy today. He wanted Romney. He wanted Business as Usual. Fat cats, big business, oligopoly and neo-con and defense appropriators running everything. And that he has definitely NOT gotten. Saah Palin is about as un-Bush a Republican as you could find, other than BIG MAC himself.
I am just hoping that at the very least, Sarah Palin will make it just a little bit clearer that John McCain will NOT be "more of the same" - which seems to be the Democrats' main theme right now. It is a very weak line of attack , given Mac's record. Who knows ? Maybe Big Mac will win his gamble despite all.
4. The fight to take the Republican party back from the "social conservatives" goes on. Deferred to 2012 or 2016. Put aside while John McCain attends to the business of governing, having assured himself, for the election at least (and not much more) that those Republicans who most dislike him will deliver their followers to his side.
I hope he doesn't end up regretting the move.
UPDATE: I have edited the last paragraph to make it read less internally combative -- in the interests of unifying ALL those citizens who do not intend to vote for BHO, myself included. I have also revisited my opinion of the Sarah Palin pick as set forth here and am still of the same opinion.
Note:
Any opinions expressed here, except as specifically noted, are those of the individual authors or commenters and do not necessarily represent the views of the editors of this site, who by the way, actually like people of faith, big businesses that employ millions of Americans, conservatives, Sarah Palin, George Bush, Dick Cheney, and Karl Rove. ;)
Anyone thinking that the ranks over at Democrat Nation have been unified should read this excellent, outspoken column by Geraldine Ferraro:
http://www.nydailynews.com/opinions/2008/08/28/2008-08-28_what_hillary_c...
If she were not of a certain age I'd start suggsting that Big Mac pick HER for his VP.
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At Real Clear Politics, Dick Morris just posted the following excellent column:
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2008/08/demss_big_blunder_and_...
In which he details just how irrelevant the entire Democrat "More of the Same" line has been, and how easily it is swept away.
In their ferocity of hatred for GWB, writes Morris, the Democrats represent a position so blind, so furious, so off the mark where John McCain is concerned that it can only fail. Morris then itemizes the many, many major legislative accomplishments that McCain advocated ad GWB opposed. As Morris says, "the Democrats are shooting at the decoy, not the duck."
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The more I see of John McCain's campaign, the more impressive I find him. You really can tell a lot, from a long, long cmpaign, about a candidate's abilities to govern by what sort of campaign he runs. In Big Mac's case, he has proven to be steady, articulate and precise, and at ease with himself. He demonstrates every minute how seriously he takes the office that he aspires to. He surrounds himself with many different kinds of voices but remains his own voice, with an even handedness that I had not expected.
By hammering home, day after day, the observation that BHO is NOT ready to be president, he forces himself to be all the readier for the job. His You Tube ads, humorous or serious, illustrate the point almost irrefutably. His speeches have vision, clarity and pragmatic purpose: which is not to say that Big Mac does not also have strong priorities: curbing the defense appropriators, cutting down federal spendin waste, restoring our nation's foreign policy credibility and extendig our military morale and effetiveness.
I say PRIORITIES, because John McCain is indeed a pragmatist, not an ideological man. He has principles, but he understands that American government seeks solutions first and chiefly, not intelleectual agends.
Constantly at various blog sites (Red State, Hedgehog Report) I find myself surrounded by folks with strong ideological callings, especiall of a pro-life bent. I call these folks "madrassa militants." Though they are not suicide bombers, or terrorists, thank goodness, as are so many Muslim madrassa students, they exhibit, albeit in milder form, that same insistence on ideological purity that makes Islamic militancy so alien; oh yes -- these low-voltage Ayatollahs know the True Way! AND YOU BETTAH BEHAVE!!! Hmmm.... Fact is, the True Way, if there is one, is something that NO human being knows, or at least I haven't yet found one who knows it. Especially no POLITICAL person.
John McCain is not of that sort. His beliefs are basic, fundamental, simple, shared by almost all Americans. He has a political program -- not an intllectual agenda. He also has character and presence. Indeed, he looks,speaks, and acts very VERY presidential: that, and nothing more. He is strong, yet comfortable. A winning hand if you ask me.
UPDATE: Easily 90 % of the blog posts that I read at Joh McCain webpages are about pro-life. Yet pro-lif zealots don't even like John McCain. Where are blog posts by those who are TRUE McCAIN SUPPORTERS ? Military folks ? Small-government advocates ? Defense budget reformrs ? Foreign policy people ? Those I don't see posting here or elsewhere. Yet they -- WE -- are the overwhelming majority of voters who wil be electing John McCain. If all that hehs re the pro-life insisters, he'll get abou 8 % of the vote. If that. Hmmm.......
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Today's Gallup Poll gives John McCain 46 % to BHO's 44 % -- Big Mac's first Gallup Poll LEAD since the Spring. Often the Gallup has had him and BHO tied, but never since Spring has Big Mac acually LED.
Call it McCain's "Obama Bounce" ?
The meatier question is WHY ?
Could it be disappointed Hillary voters moving definitely to Big Mac ? In part, probably. But 2 % of 120,000,000 looks larger than just disappointed Hillary voters. I'm thinking it's simply that Big Mac's August momentum continues; that slowly but surely a crucial number of voters is, bit by bit, deciding that Mac's a safer choice at this time than the New Kid on the Block - whom they like, mostly, but just not ready to be voted for YET. In 2012, maybe.
Menwhile I'm looking to see CO, VA, and OH solidify for Big Mac as NV, IN, NC, and FL already seem to have. I'm also looking to see MN, MI, NM, and even PA and OR come ino play...
William Kristol, one of this election's most thoughtful commentators, posted this column in today's New York Times:
http://www.nytimes.com/2008/08/25/opinion/25kristol.html?_r=1&ref=opinio...
It deserves a full read. I too, as readers of my blog know, support Joe Lieberman for John McCain's VP. Kristol says it better than I've done.
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Bill Kristol, friend of John McCain and one of the more accomodating consevatives in the commentariat, has an interesting if disingenuous blog available at
http://www.weeklystandard.com/weblogs/TWSFP/2008/08/kristol_the_democrat...
...on the subject of Hillary Clinton not even being considered for VP on BHO's ticket.
In his blog, Kristol shows that Hillary has every capability & credential that Joe Biden has and then some, on his way to suggesting that her name should be placed in nomination at Denver not for President but for VICE president.
Nice thought -- but Bill Krstol knows very well why Hillary wasn't even considered for BHO's VP:
1. it would magnify BHO's WEAKNESS(ES).
2. It would put him in a minority in his own house, as with Hillary comes Bill.
Clearly, as I have already blogged here, BHO decided that he would rather lose the election than win the presidency weakly. He decided that if he is going to be President, it is going to be HIS presidency and not somebody else's. For this, I respect him.
His decision also forces the Democratic party -- HIS Democratic party, not the Clintons' -- to get off its duff and start working as hard as it can to elect him. Picking Joe Biden has made it more difficult for BHO to win and thus more vital for HIS party operatives to work their butts off.
I suspect that that, too, is a message that BHO is sending about what he will expect of HIS Democratic party if he is elected. Because otherwise, it will revert very quickly to being Hillary & Bill's Democratic party. In which lies both opportunity and threat...
Big Mac will surely benefit, significantly, from this decision -- IF he handles the opportunity carefully thus handed to him.
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The 2008 election is definitely acquiring shape. It will be close-run. It will NOT be about change. Electorally, it looks VERY much like the past two elections.
This is a surprise. Given that both candidates, Big Mac and BHO, are insurgents within their respective political parties, one might have expected the 2008 electoral map to look very unlike those of recent Presidential elections. That the 2008 map does NOT look much different, given who is running, sends us a VERY important message: THE PARTIES HAVE THEIR OWN, WELL DEFINED CONSTITUENCIES NO MATTER WHO IS RUNNING.
If this message is a true one, and not just a coincidence, then John McCain really hs no choice but to WORK HIS BASE. Yet to work the Republican base this year is to lose. Thus, the BASE must be worked FOR John Mcain, by someone else, while he himself goes out in Maverick Mode and works the very small remaining, Maverick portion of the entire electorate -- maybe 2 % of the electorate.
WHO, then, is going to work the base for him ? Probably not his VP choice. His VP choice can be only one of two types. Either it will be Mitt Romney, who is skilled in debate and aggressive, and who likely brings MI and also helps in CO and NV, or it will be one of three VP possbilities who have Washington knowledge and can help Big Mac govern. the three Washington-knowledge choices are none of them, very much help ramping up the BASE. Joe Lieberman isn't a Republican; David Petraeus is a military man; Rob Portman is too unknown except in Ohio. As for Mitt Romney, he is distrusted -- rightly -- by much of the base, and that part of the base that DOES like him -- economic conservatives -- don't need working; they are aboard already.
The Base will thus depend on others. Mike Huckabee; Sam Brownback; Kay Baley Hutchinson; Tom Coburn; Eric Cantor; John Kasich; Carly Fiorina; Newt Gingrich; Fred Thompson George Allen; Michael Steele; J.C. Watts. But HOW ? None of these has the clout of a VP Or Presidential nominee. There is, however, one way in which these BASE BUILDERS can make their influence felt strongly. THEY CAN DO IT AS A TEAM. Travelling as a TEAM, they can impress by HAVING NUMBERS and BY BEING DIFFERENT PERSONALITIES ADVOCATING ONE THEME: That John McCain is RIGHT for America.
And there you have it, as I see it. In an election that, despite the insurgent character of the nominees, will be very much a replay of 2000 and 2004 -- the Dems are already trying to make it a referendum on "Bush-McCain" despite the unlikeliness of the connection -- John McCain can win by being even just SLIGHTLY Not George Bush as long as the campaigbn can do TWO things simultaneouly: keep the Base involved, and nudge the Maverick Lovers into our camp just a teensy weensy bit more than usual.
Easy to say, not so easy to do. Watch Colorado. Watch Minnesota. Watch New Hampshire and Oregon. Watch Michigan especially.
The selection of Joe Biden says a lot about BHO's good sense. Clearly he has developed -- learning the hard way -- a willingness to make the hard choices, as any potential President must. To pick Joe Biden, he had to ignore the following "conventional wisdom":
1.that a VP running mate should help the candidate carry a state that he needs
2.that he needs Hillary in order to win.
3.That his VP cabdidate should "do no harm."
Joe Biden adds not one electoral vote to BHO's total.
Joe Biden is not Hillary.
Joe Biden has said a lot of things that will definitely embarrass BHO on the campaign trail -- not the least of which things is posted at this very website as a video blog.
BUT..... Joe Biden does help BHO to govern, were he to win. Biden is an accomplished Washington veteran. He connects to working-class voters. He has substantial foreign policy credentials.
To get to the pick of Joe Biden, BHO had to say that he is willing to take his chance that he might not win with a running mate who adds so little, election-wise, to the ticket. He had to say that he prefers to win the right way, or not at all. He had to say that he was willing to chance the displeasure of the Clintons -- and to do so because he cannot, CANNOT, govern the nation if he owes, or is perceived as owing, his election to Bill and Hillary and their commanding presence.
Frankly, I think much better of BHO today, for having made this choice, than I did before.
I still disagree completely with BHO's isues and I cannot abide the prospect of the country's hate-America left-roots being inside in the power. Yet if BHO could make the choice of Joe Biden, who is in NO way a left-root, I see no reason why he could not gofvern on his own authority, with the left-roots left waiting, were he to win. After all, Ronald Reagan was a master at giving our right-roots tons of lip service: and not much more.
Now it's up to Big Mac to make a BIG decision. I KNOW that he will do it and do it the RIGHT way.
Here is the audio from the McCain campaign conference call today hosted by Carly fiorina. The call highlights the contrast between John McCain and Barack Obama
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